HELLO → DEMO
Forecast Reliability Calculator
Quarterly new-business target$2,500,000
Qualified pipeline this quarter$9,000,000
Committed forecast$1,400,000
HELLO → DEMO
Forecast Reliability Calculator
Most revenue forecasts are a feeling with a dollar sign attached. The real one is arithmetic: the qualified pipeline you hold, times the rate it actually closes, minus the deals that drift past the quarter. Start with what the averages promise. Then we price the risk.
One boundary: count only pipeline that can close inside this quarter. Your sales cycle decides what qualifies. With a 90-day cycle, a deal created in week six belongs to next quarter, not this one. Stuffing the whole CRM into this number produces a flattering forecast and a brutal quarter.
Defaults: a 25% win rate on qualified pipeline, 20% of expected wins slipping out of the quarter, and a $50,000 average deal. These are stated planning assumptions, not benchmarks. Set yours. Market context: B2B SaaS win rates have been drifting down across 2024 and 2025 (ICONIQ Growth, State of Go-to-Market 2025).
An average is a promise about many quarters. You only get this one. With a finite number of deals in play, luck alone swings the outcome by hundreds of thousands of dollars in either direction. A board-grade forecast subtracts the luck before it gets committed.
The average sales organization closes only 48.2% of deals as originally forecast and wins 46.9% of forecasted deals (CSO Insights, World-Class Sales Practices Study). Half of a typical commit is weather. The 90% confidence number is the part that is not.
Three dollars of pipeline for every dollar of quota assumed a 33% win rate. The market stopped paying that rate years ago. Your real requirement is not folklore, it is your own conversion math, plus a buffer for variance.
ICONIQ Growth's State of Go-to-Market 2025 put median pipeline coverage near 3.6x and flagged that at current win rates, that coverage no longer carries the forecast. The defaults on this page start you at exactly that median, on purpose.
Reliability is one division: the revenue you can defend at 90% confidence, over the revenue you committed. Above 100%, the forecast holds. Below it, you are spending credibility you have not earned yet.
Bankable
Your commit clears the 90% bar with room to spare. The forecast is honest.
The bankable number does not rise because anyone forecasts harder. It rises when more of the same pipeline converts: tighter qualification, deal inspection that catches drift early, follow-up that does not leak. Conversion is a system, and a system moves the floor, not just the average.
A 25% lift means a win rate of 25% becomes 31%. Because the lift raises the floor as well as the average, the 90% confidence number climbs faster than the expected value does. For scale: the last time this system was installed at scale, close rate went from 3.0% to 11.2% over four years. A 25% lift is the conservative case. The pipeline stays the same. The floor under it does not.
$429,023 more defendable revenue every quarter, $1,716,092 across a year. The gap to target narrows from $997,817 to $568,794.
Hope is not a forecast. A system is.
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Straight answers to what people ask before they run the numbers.
A raw forecast is closer to a wish than a number, because most teams commit deals that slip or never close. With fewer than one in five qualified deals won at the market median (Ebsta and Pavilion 2025), the optimistic commit number rarely holds. Reliability comes from committing the figure that survives your own win rate and historical slippage, not the sum of every hopeful deal.
Top performers win 30% or more of qualified pipeline; the 2025 median has fallen to 19%, down from 29% the year before (Ebsta and Pavilion, $48B of pipeline). Win rate on qualified pipeline is the cleanest read, because it strips out the early-stage noise that inflates coverage.
Take your weighted pipeline, then subtract the slippage and loss your own history shows before the number leaves the room. The 90%-confidence number is the one you would stake the board meeting on, not the sum of every commit deal.