How accurate is my sales forecast?

A raw forecast is closer to a wish than a number, because most teams commit deals that slip or never close. With fewer than one in five qualified deals won at the market median (Ebsta and Pavilion 2025), the optimistic commit number rarely holds. Reliability comes from committing the figure that survives your own win rate and historical slippage, not the sum of every hopeful deal.

What is a good win rate on qualified pipeline?

Top performers win 30% or more of qualified pipeline; the 2025 median has fallen to 19%, down from 29% the year before (Ebsta and Pavilion, $48B of pipeline). Win rate on qualified pipeline is the cleanest read, because it strips out the early-stage noise that inflates coverage.

How do I forecast revenue at 90% confidence?

Take your weighted pipeline, then subtract the slippage and loss your own history shows before the number leaves the room. The 90%-confidence number is the one you would stake the board meeting on, not the sum of every commit deal.

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Forecast Reliability Calculator

Most forecasts are a feeling with a number attached. Score how much of your committed forecast is real, and see what the quarter looks like at 90 percent confidence.

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